One of the successful reforms was the formation of the ISIS group, the more heinous version of the “core” al-Qaeda whose leaders have turned against ISIS. Although the original al-Qaeda network has lost notoriety, it is still known that its offshoot cell-groups and lone wolves throughout the world continue to commit frequent acts of violence to the non-Muslim countries, especially the West and Israel, unless they are stopped by an outside force. Hence, it is of great importance to examine what lies ahead for the two individual groups in light Of the al-Qaeda versions to date.
The September 1 1, 2001 attacks were a turning point in the perception of terrorist groups and their merciless attacks. Many counter-terrorism apartments and policies were created during the “Global War on Terrorism” (Hurwitz, S 2014; Howard, R. , & Sawyer, R. 2006435). As a matter of fact, the world had known smaller-scale and frequent terrorist activity in recent history, but this understanding did not come to the forefront until after 9/1 1 when al-Qaeda made it apparent that the western superpower no longer needed to be considered invincible, but an entity that is vulnerable from across the oceans (Post 2009; Howard, R 2006).
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Numerous extremists all around the world have since created their own organizations in the name of rearranging “al-Qaeda. ” Amid these groups, an unprecedented one emerged with brutal tactics, plenty of resources, and its own territories, and became the world’s richest terrorist group in today’s world – that is ISIS (Seoul, J 2014). In spite of the enduring nature of the counter terrorism policies put into action since the events of 9/1 1 , contemporary terrorism is continuing to flourish.
It seems impossible that one nation, the United States itself, spent more than 10 billion dollars to advance national and domestic security, while it appears that terrorism continues unabated. Consider the cent terrorist cases of the Boston Marathon bombings in the United States, Charlie Hoped shootings in France, the tourists killed at the Board Museum in Tunisian, and the suicide bombing at the Asana mosque in Yemeni as evidence of terrorism’s seemingly unhindered march across the globe.
Most of these attacks and others like them are the work of terrorists affiliated with al-Qaeda or ISIS. Therefore, it seems more crucial than ever to increase counter-terrorist activities and continue research in the eradication of ferocious terrorists such as al-Qaeda-based freelancers and groups such as ISIS in this world. More importantly, learning the history, ideology, and strategies of al-Qaeda and its affiliates can be a springboard to more accurate predictions of future terrorist movements.
What is al Qaeda? The origin of al Qaeda – meaning “base”9 – began with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 0 in 1989. Opposed to the communist ideology to absorb the Afghanistan government, Arab volunteers, also known as meaningful 1, joined what is referred to the “holy war’ or jihad against non-Muslim forces. Among those Arab volunteers were men who would become key ringleaders in al-Qaeda, men such as Osama bin Laden, Amman al-Charities, ND Abdullah Zamia.
These leaders spearheaded the movement to recruit shadiest from across the Muslim world with a call for victorious jihad not only in Afghanistan, but also around the world. Key to this victory was the destruction of the American ideology that ran intolerably counter to that of Islam (Hellenic, C 2011). There were indeed, following Scam’s sudden death in 1 989, clear-cut causes as to why Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda targeted the United States as a major enemy. In the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Saudi Arabia refused to deploy al-Qaeda-offered jihads forces against
Sad Hussein’s aggression. Rather, the Saudi ruler, King Fad, was partially in favor of U. S. Military and financial supports, creating a deep division between the Saudi and bin Laden. Another crucial event that provoked Osama bin Laden was King Fad’s invitation to the U. S. Military forces to travel through the Arabian Peninsula, popularly known as Mecca 15 and is in close proximity to their holy lands (Post 2009). This invitation was a harbinger of new-era international terrorism between the West and the al-Qaeda forces.
After transferring headquarters from Sudan into Afghanistan due to the instruction of a tight-knit relationship with the Taliban regime, which furnished a training camp and military garrison, this homegrown organization or network gradually turned their focus to the transnational goals of the destruction of western values and the existent Jewish state of Israel (Hellenic, C 2011 Attacks attributed to al-Qaeda and associated groups began with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and continued to the bombing of the Twin Towers in New York City on September 1 1, 2001 and further terrorist events 7 against non-combatants on a transnational scope. Most of these attacks were brought on because of religious goals. Having identical goals, but envisioning different avenues toward recreating the Islamic empire that once existed caused friction within al Qaeda rank and file.
The one group began to split into individual segments. AY-Qaeda Ideology and philosophy The ideology of al-Qaeda can be found in a specific document – “al-Qaeda operational man where eight chapters of the total contain not only a sophisticated list of instructions for operation methods but also mistakes and lessons cited from other adversaries such as an Israeli Moisakos counter- espionage failure and the Russian KGB elite Alpha Group. Many of the instructions cite certain sugar (verses) of the Quasar’s as a contrivance to justify their acts of violence. This training manual has afforded one of the best insights into the al-Qaeda leadership.
The mindsets of Osama bin Laden and his successor Amman al-Charier were heavily inspired by Stayed Quotes, who was a vanguard of an Islamic fundamentalist revival and laid the foundation for al-Qaeda ideology. Quest’s definition of the enemy included ‘untrue’ Muslims as well as Western-Israelis who had wickedly plotted, especially since he Israel independence in 1948, to besmirch the pristine Islamic states. Based on a notion of Socialist shadiest, al Qaeda ideology permitted the slaying of civilians dedicated to other religions as well as unorthodox Muslims such as Suffix’s and Shiites, as religiously justified to achieve jihad (Wright 2006:32-59).
According to their ideology, al Qaeda has two objectives: one is the collapse of western influence and Israel, and second is the establishment of the “Islamic state” where one righteous Caliph will rule an orthodox Muslim community according to Shari’s law, and eliminate non- Muslim collectives (infidels), who have blemished the “pure” Islam (Wright 20061175). The Rolling strategies According to an interview with USAF al Adele, one of al Qaeda high-ranking members, the group had a seven-juncture plan from 2000 to 2020 for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate. Strategic sub-objectives have evolved on a chronological basis as below: (Parrish 2014). The first phase (2000 to 2003) was an “awakening” juncture that was to drag attention from the west forces and awaken Muslims all over the world to their ultimate goal, a reinstatement of Islamic states.
It was assessed as successful since al Qaeda instigated the World Trade Center terror in New York and on the Pentagon in Washington proving the U. S. Was no longer untouchable. However, American’s full scale military raids in Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in the loss of key leaders and a weakened stronghold in Afghanistan. The second phase (2004 to 2006) was, according to the interviewer Food Hussein, a transition from an organization to a movement (Jihads). In this transition, they laid the groundwork for a base while recruiting young men to set up an “army. ” The Long War Journal, in 2005, named this second phase a failure. But, in fact, ore extremists the Islamic State of Iraq and the Eleven (SOILS) were active in Iraq and Syria since its inception in 2004.
It, thus, can be called successful in this regard. The third phase (2007 to 201 0) was a period in which al Qaeda masterminds planned attacks on Israel to marshal like-minded terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria. There was a surge of al Qaeda affiliates such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (ASAP) in Yemen, AY Shabby in Somalia, al Qaeda in the Islamic Manager (SWIM) in Algeria, the Libya Islamic Fighting Group (LIFE), the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq, all of which ad carried out terrorist courses of action against civilians, albeit with different visions from “core-al Qaeda,” which were more or less considered successful.
The fourth phase (201 0 to 2013) was the collapse of the hated Arabic government as well as undermining western economy, the backbone of international trade and the world economy, exemplified by a boat packed with explosives in October 2002. 28 This period was a turning point for the group when their administrative structure became more cellular. Bin Laden had previously employed a top-down administrative model. AY Qaeda affiliates, and individuals basing their actions on al-Qaeda vision, managed to operate all over the North Africa, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, and even South Asia. In the wake of Arab Spring, the Syrian Sad regime was seen as a template by a majority of terrorist groups at the time. The fifth phase spans from 201 3 to 2016 during which time an Islamic state or caliphate will be proclaimed while western influence and Israel forces are weakened.
Societal order, legitimacy, and politics would be under the al Qaeda oversight. In the present day, despite differences from the original al Qaeda mission, the event can be seen as ongoing through cellular activity or efforts. The creation of ISIS in 2013 as a terrorist “state” corroborated the idea that this is not an unrealistic narrative. The sixth phase is the period from 2016 onward, which is planned as a direct confrontation between Islamic believers and non- believers. The seventh phase, as a final step, is depicted as “definitive victory’ and should be attained by 2020. The sixth and seventh phase of what lies ahead is indistinct.
The Organization in Transitions AY Qaeda The first generation of al-Qaeda, from its birth to the September 1 1, 2001 attack on The United States, operated on a command structure mainly under the guidance of Osama bin Laden, who took control of the group following Abdullah Scam’s death. For this emerging generation of terrorists, al-Qaeda played an unprecedented role in encouraging young Muslims to resist their enemies: the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Western countries. When it came to recruitment, al-Qaeda did not have a formal hiring system, but relied on familial ties and relationships, mostly started from a “brotherhood” Status, a similar concept of “Muslim Brotherhood. ” According o the Commission on Terrorist Attacks, there were as many as 20,000 potential terrorists trained at bin Laden-led camps throughout Afghanistan from May 1996 to September 1 1, 2001.
Many skillful and feared terrorist attackers involved in high-profile strategic onslaughts such as the World Trade Center bombing in 199329, the catastrophic explosion in Saudi Arabia in 1 99630, the East African bombings in 199831 and three years later the attacks of 9/1 1 in New York and Washington, D. C. , came from these training camps, which were considered the main pathway for the next terrorist generations (Post 2009:202-205). The al-Qaeda top-down structure employed four interconnected, but distinct factors: a pyramidal structure to facilitate strategies and prompt decision-makings; a transnational terrorist network to cooperate with other terrorist syndicates to reach every corner of the world; a base force of guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan; and a loose coalition of transnational and domestic groups to minimize differences and emphasize similarities, such as the vision of a common enemy – the West (Gunboat, R 2002).
Terrorists’ targets were declared through The Two Fatwa’s in 1996 and 1998 respectively. The first fatwa, or holy decree, declared war against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places according to Bin Laden. The second fatwa further expanded to “Jihad against Jews and Crusaders. ” It has been a religious obligation for global shadiest to do so thereafter (Watts, C 2013). AY Qaeda 2. 0 Following the declaration of “War on Terror” in the post-9/1 1 world, al-Qaeda morphed from what has been called al-Qaeda Version 1. 0 into al-Qaeda Version 2. 0 where the network lost the hierarchical control, but its ideology still influenced the global Salami jihad movement.
Many regional brigades with efferent titles sprung up far and wide during this juncture and marked post- September 11 attacks in Bali, Yemen, Moscow, Spain’s, North Africa, etc. As a response to Osama bin Alden’s recording: “The Islamic nation, thanks to God, has started to attack you at the hands of its beloved sons, who pledged to God to continue jihad, as long as they are able, through words and weapons, to establish right and expose falsehood” (Post 2009:211-222). In the face of the losses of the Afghanistan bases and senior leaders, the withered “core” al-Qaeda force was still not destroyed, but was being operated under he current leader, Shari’s, stewardship. The Charier-operated al-Qaeda embraced its rivals to shore up its strengths.
One of its rivals was that of ABA Muses al-Serialize, a founder of al-Qaeda in Iraq (IQ, and later renamed ISIS after his death in 2006). In stark contrast to “moderate” bin Laden and Shari’s leaderships, Gizzard utilized more aggressive and indiscriminate means to achieve the political ends, one of which was to purge Shiites. His main purpose was to destroy the whole population of the Shih community in Iraq, rather than to focus on destroying American and Israeli interests (Celli, A 2014). This stage raised concerns about “homegrown terrorists” who had no central structure. Many Muslim youths not in the Middle East who sympathized with the global jihads movement operated independently. AY Qaeda 3. Less than four years ago, the idea of al-Quaysides was on its last leg due to Osama bin Alden’s – a heroic and inspirational figure to shadiest – passing in 201 1. Since the Arab Awakening started in 2010, corrupt, dictatorial, and secular regimes from Tunisia to Syria have collapsed en masses or near collapsed in case of Basher al-Sad regime, one after another, due to peaceful, pro-democratic protests. However, these collapses failed to touch extremists who preferred to practice violence and follow original Islamic laws (Ridded, B 2014). Thus, the third generation rose in what was known as the Basher al-Sad regime in which Jubbah al-Unusual -? a self-declared al-Qaeda affiliate – was created.
The Unbar province became the epicenter of ISIS whose leader, ABA Baker al-Baghdad, called upon global shadiest to assemble and reestablish the “Islamic States of Caliphate. ” The reason they were created in both countries was primarily due to the gradual implementation of the Syrian infighting in early 2012, which led shadiest to engage in the sighting on religious grounds. Also, its proximity to US-occupied Iraq made Syria “a terrorist attraction venue. ” The Syrian government, which was intent on keeping US forces busy fighting al-Qaeda, brought calamity upon itself by offering a safe haven for world shadiest. A series of peaceful protests triggered by the Arab Spring ultimately wrought some tragic repercussions especially in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq (Mustang 2014). What is ISIS?
The Islamic State has gone through scores of its names from al-Qaeda in Iraq (IQ), Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), Islamic State in Iraq and the Eleven (SOILS), and the latest moniker Islamic State (IS). The group today is considered a monstrous organization due to their tactics, such as beheading, crucifixion, and public execution, practiced on anyone, regardless of gender or age. ISIS is so brutal even the current al-Qaeda organization has distanced itself from the group (Lee, E, & Army, M 2015). The expressed aim of ISIS is to erect a Socialist government over the Eleven areas of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Cyprus and Southern Turkey.
Little is known about the group’s leader, ABA Baker al-Baghdad and the origin of his enmity against literally everyone else. Several eyewitnesses, as well as his neighbors, have given testimony that he is a very quiet, introverted, and pious person. His origins of ruthlessness, it is guessed, lie in the IS. S. Invasion in 2003 to usurp the Sad Hussein regime. He has spent several years in confinement in Camp Abaca, known as a “terrorist university’ through which have passed many Islamic State leaders(Giovanni, J 2014). When al-Baghdad – his real name ‘ABA Du’ -? was discharged from the camp in 2009, he formed the Islamic State in Iraq, and was nominated as the leader in May 2010.
From the beginning, the Islamic State in Iraq had voluminous ambitions and a different agenda from the “core” al-Qaeda. They abandoned al-Qaeda flag and chose a new one, which is the one they currently use (Newman, A 2014). The Of AY-Qaeda and ISIS There are no natural laws or scientific principles that can be used to predict how the next wave of al-Qaeda affiliates will move. It is hard to foretell the future of terrorist movements despite efforts and analysis conducted by scores of scholars, terrorism experts, and government agencies. The world could experience a complete liberation from terrorism if ways were covered to forestall what might unfold next.
Unfortunately, terrorism is still under way every/here even though many counter-terrorism organizations are working to prevent or uproot al-Qaeda franchises and individual cells (Simon, J, 2013, chapter 8, “A Look Toward The Future”). Since the “core al Qaeda” has collapsed, a number of cellular groups emerged around the globe. Although major counter-terrorism policies have been reinforced across many countries, radicalized individuals took advantage of off-guard moments as evidenced in the Charlie Hoped shooting in Paris, the events of May 2014 n Brussels, and those of May 2013 in London committed “lone wolves” affiliated with al-Qaeda or Islamic extremists.
There is reason to believe that nations making visible efforts to eliminate terrorism can have an impact in destroying al-Qaeda’ creating safe-havens, cutting revenue streams, and hampering would-be terrorists from traveling abroad to participate international terrorist groups. Nonetheless, many countries experienced a low-barrier for self-motivated shadiest who have locally or domestically carried out terrorist attacks such as 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing. In this ensue, although many people thought the war was over when bin Laden was shot and officially declared dead in 2011, many counter-terrorism experts commented we are still playing on bin Laden-built game that no longer needed him (The Economist’s blob 201 1).
A new version of violent jihad has emerged on the very corner of the world, indicating that the war against al- Qaeda is a battle of ideas that cannot be won militarily (Hellenic 201 1:162). John Horror, the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies, also commented that the rise of lone wolf terrorism is a sign Of organizational weakness, and et it does not mean that the Western world, considered as a main enemy to al-Qaeda, is free from such larger-scale attacks by al Qaeda affiliates (Named 2015). Unlike the al-Qaeda network, the more strategically radical ISIS group, as the latest version of al-Qaeda, has focused more on peripheral regions to build bases all over the Middle East than on Western nations, at least not at this stage.
To achieve their objective – the establishment of the “Caliphate” ISIS will likely pay heed to allying other terrorist organizations within the Middle East areas, rather than to attacking a distance target. Clearly, this does not mean that ISIS already has a solid basis on which to achieve their wishes. In some cases, Baghdad succeeded in partnering extreme terrorist organizations such as the Nanas Batty al-Misaims in Sinai, AY-Qaeda branch in Morocco, Book Harm in Uganda, and some Taliban groups in Pakistan, the leaders Of which have sworn allegiance to Baghdad. However, a multiplicity of “moderate” terrorist groups rejected siding with ISIS on account of different perspectives.
Assam al-Barbaric, a modern Salami movement leader and the leader of the Jihad in Jordan, sharply railed against SIS’S antics killing Shiites, other minorities, and even Sunnis followers who do not show loyalty to SIS’S indoctrination. This is just one example of the strained relationships and rivalries between the various groups. The incumbent al-Qaeda leader, al- Charier, also condemned their tactics and methodology (Meghan)45, saying that is not jihad, but nothing less than aggression and barbaric crime. In this sense, such dynamics amongst even terrorist groups in the Middle East would definitely hamper SIS’S pathway (Barrel, Z. 2014; Celli, A. 2014).
Conclusion We have seen the evolution of the al-Qaeda network from its rise to its aspersion, which continues through many versions of terrorist groups and sleeper cells. In the face of the weakened al-Qaeda power, its influence is still prevalent. It remains a force with which to be reckoned in this world. The most heinous al-Qaeda-based group, ISIS, which has performed with a similar, yet skewed, vision, will surely threaten our world in many ways. Despite their haphazard terrorism, their threat to the western and third world countries at this stage is somewhat lessened because al-Baghdad now centers On exterminating fellow Muslims through beheading, crucifixions, ND public executions, activities which have become their trademarks.